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NAR Chief Economist Says Rhode Island Is On The Cusp Of Turnaround
Monday, November 03, 2008

Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, recently spoke on the state of our local marketplace:

Rhode Island is on the cusp of a turnaround.  Rhode Island sales rose 9% in September from a year ago. This is the first year-over-year increase in about 2 1/2 years.  Pending home sales were starting to rise a month ago.

Today's front page (October 22nd ) in WSJ has a story of California turnaround. CA sales were turning positive about 5 months ago and the positive momentum strengthened each subsequent month.  Sales in CA is now up strongly by 60% from one year ago.  The buyers are returning largely in part to take advantage of much lower prices. I view RI today as resembling CA 5 months ago.  If this is right, then you may see home sales in RI to be up by 50% or more in spring of 2009 vs spring of 2008.

RI's economy is weakening as with the national economy.  The state has 3,000 fewer jobs now compared to one year ago. The unemployment rate is now 8.8% (one of the highest in the country) versus 5% a year ago.  However, keep in mind that CA sales are rising even as jobs are being cut in CA.  Home sales are impacted more strongly by affordability rather than jobs.  In RI, more than 90% of the workforce still have jobs and they can respond to affordability incentives. 

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